皇家华人

Here at the听UCL Policy听Lab,听we鈥檒l be working to understand and analyse the Statement, including how the decisions and economic headwinds are affecting our everyday lives.听As we start, we鈥檝e identified the first听big questions听from Jeremy Hunt's statement.听

1. What鈥檚 the plan听for growth?听

Say what you like about Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 鈥� and a lot is said 鈥� but at least we knew what they were about. 鈥淕rowth鈥� was their prime objective and they believed that Britain could get it by radically reducing taxes, especially on the better off. It is much less clear what the new leadership thinks. The OBR听predicts听that the UK economy听will shrink by 1.4% in 2023, the weakest听economic performance听in Europe.听Britain will be the only G7听country听whose economy remains smaller than before the pandemic.听Moreover, even when the OBR predicts the economy will start growing again it is only because it expects people to dip into their savings to keep their spending going and because it expects immigration to stay at historically high levels.

So where else might growth come from?听Jeremy Hunt mentions听skills and education鈥攃learly听crucial, but few would be able to identify a strategy or a plan, and that surely is both an opportunity for the government鈥檚 opponents and a cause for some real concern.

2. What is the role for public service听reform?听

Chancellors often surprise听us with a so-called 鈥榬abbit out of the hat鈥� moment. 听Gordon Brown and George Osborne both enjoyed听the听fiscal trick. A way to boost popular support and send a message about the direction of government. Jeremy Hunt opted to surprise not with a听tax听giveaway but听with听two听Labour grandees.听He appointed听Patricia Hewitt听and Michael Barber听to help him reform public services听and build a policy for skills. In doing so,听Hunt sought to听signal that听the government听was听still willing to undertake public sector reform.听

Clearly public services do need reform.听For听anyone who has had to order a passport, renew a driving license or book a听GP appointment,听the need for听change听is听clear.听Yet听this is a government听that has been in power for over 12 years and a Conservative party that听seems increasingly willing to rebel.听To undertake reform, the听Conservatives听will need energy,听discipline听and a strong sense of direction. It鈥檚 not听at all听clear they听have these. But time will tell.听

3.听Is compassionate conservatism really back?听

Alongside听sound money and听fiscal prudence. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt sought to resurrect听another听Cameron-era听political label,听鈥榗ompassionate听conservativism鈥�.听With the听inflation-matching听rise in听benefits and targeted support on energy bills, the government sought to demonstrate they鈥檙e听supporting听those in genuine need听at a time of rising prices and stagnant wages.听In听hitting higher earners with听tax rises,听they want to show听that听those with the broadest shoulders bear the brunt of the costs. Yet even with these changes,听the picture remains bleak for听millions and especially for听those听on low incomes.听The historic squeeze on living standards we are all about to live through will not feel like compassion to many.

4.听What happens to net-zero?

War in Ukraine and the energy crisis have focused minds on energy听policy. And听more specifically, on听how Britain could become 鈥楨nergy听self-sufficient鈥�. As an Island nation,听the UK has some clear natural advantages听in听renewable energy.听But for this renewable, net-zero dream听to be realised,听there will be a need for continued long-term investment by both the government and听the听private sector, and once again the chancellor鈥檚 statement left as many questions as answers in this regard. Plans for massively enhancing the insulation of our homes will not come into practice for years to come and there was remarkably little said about investment in new technologies beyond the usual rhetorical commitments. Moreover, while net zero听remains听politically popular听in general, it听continues听to be controversial among some prominent conservatives.听There could well be听continued pressure from elements of the听chancellor鈥檚 own party听further听to water down or delay measures. How Sunak听and Hunt听respond will be听critical听to the future of听both the economy and the climate.听

5.听Will tax rises cause rebellion in the Tory party?听

Tim Shipman听of听The Sunday Times听observed听that听the听House of听Commons was听almost听鈥渇unereal鈥澨齩n Thursday.听On the government鈥檚 own听benches听it听wasn鈥檛 just the dire growth figures or the looming spectre of cuts to public spending听that were dampening moods.听Rather it was the combined anxiety that听taxes听were rising again, to the highest level since the Second World War, and that the Conservative party鈥檚 electoral prospects are hanging by a thread.听Liz Truss may have crashed and burned, but the听ideological听flame for a听low-tax听Britain听still burns in the hearts of many Tory听MPs听who continue to believe it is also a path to victory. They will,听of course,听all support this Autumn Statement. And we shouldn鈥檛 expect a mass rebellion in the coming days. But we shouldn鈥檛听doubt Tory MPs' unwillingness听to听back听further tax rises.听Their听patience may well snap long before the next election. At听which point,听Sunak and Hunt will once again be left听dealing with听internal Tory party management over tackling just some of the challenges set out in this frostiest of Autumn Statements.听