皇家华人

The Annals of Improbable Research at MIT awarded Dr Saul Justin Newman the first-ever Ig Nobel award in Demography in a ceremony on 12 September 2024. The Ig Nobel awards have been handed out annually since 1991, to scientific research that 鈥渕akes people laugh, and then think鈥�.听

Dr听Newman received the award for research that revealed fundamental flaws in extreme old-age demographic research, by demonstrating that data patterns are likely to be dominated by errors and finding that supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud ,听not yet peer-reviewed).听

These results build on a long history of scepticism. Dr听Newman has a 2016 study published in Nature听on extreme-age research that accidentally rounded off a substantial amount of its data to zero. His peer-reviewed demonstrated that if corrected, this error eliminated the core findings claiming that human lifespan had a defined limit. Then, Dr Newman also a 2018 paper which and, in the process, demonstrated a predicting that patterns in old-age data are likely to be dominated by errors.听

In investigating this theory, Dr听Newman demonstrated fundamental and comedic mismatches between longevity claims and observed patterns. In the process, Dr听Newman revealed that the well-publicised 鈥淏lue Zones鈥� claims for the secrets of longevity are infallibly flawed.听

Dr听Newman showed that the highest rates of achieving extreme old age are predicted by high poverty, the lack of birth certificates, and fewer 90-year-olds. Poverty and pressure to commit pension fraud were shown to be excellent indicators of reaching ages 100+ in a way that is 鈥榯he opposite of rational expectations鈥�. 听

In addition, Dr听Newman revealed numerous flaws in the supposedly validated cases of the world鈥檚 oldest people, including the world鈥檚 oldest man, who was shown to have not one but three birthdays. 听

Finally, Dr听Newman debunked the popular idea of 鈥楤lue Zones鈥� as regions of exceptional longevity and healthy lifestyles. Many, if not most of the centenarians in the听鈥楤lue Zone鈥櫶齢ave turned out to be alive in the government records but were deceased in reality.听Using extensive government data and surveys, Dr听Newman showed that most of the dietary and lifestyle claims behind the so-called 鈥楤lue Zone鈥� regions of high longevity are not supported by any independent data. 听

For example, despite vegetables and sweet potatoes being promoted as key components of the Okinawan 鈥楤lue Zone鈥� diets, according to the Japanese government, Okinawans eat the least vegetables and sweet potatoes in Japan and have the highest body mass index.听

This forms one of a series of papers debunking old-age records including forthcoming work on in which extreme longevity appears to be concentrated in Monaco, Malawi, Kenya, Western Sahara, Puerto Rico, and other regions.听

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• In the media: , ,听, , ,听,听, .听
• Centre for Longitudinal Studies
• Social Research Institute

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Dr Newman (left) at the 34th First Annual Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony.